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Ag By The Numbers..the July WASDE Report

by Mike Austin

Don't expect to see market prices rallying any time soon. The USDA"S July WASDE is out and it has a bearish tone to it. Looking at the individual commodities Wheat supplies for 2014-15 were lowered as winter wheat production is expected to falter...no big surprise to many of you raising the crop here in Wisconsin. Projected ending stocks were raised by 34 million bushels as usage is projected to be down. The USDA has also revised downward their price estimate on a larger than expected carryout, higher global production and recent sharp declines in the futures market.

The new price range for 2014-15 wheat is $6.35-$7.65 per bushel.

The outlook for U.S. feed grains was virtually unchanged. The projected U.S. corn yield remains at 165.3 bushels per acre. And there was no revisions in demand on either the domestic or world market. As a result the average price for corn is still expected to range from $4.25- $4.65 a bushel...with lower prices expected for the last quarter of the year.

For soybeans, the report is calling for tighter ending stocks even though we are looking at record planted acreage. The USDA still feels domestic and world demand will be strong for beans and lowered ending stocks to 125 million bushels for 2013-14 and 325 million for 2014-15. The USDA left their soybean price estimate unchanged.

As for the dairy market, production forecast remained unchanged for both 2014-2015 while export estimates were raised on expectations of higher cheese sales. That figure will be limited however because of weaker projected butter sales. As for prices. USDA does expect them to continue to fall through the fourth quarter of 2014 and most of 2015.