The Green Bay Packers have gotten off to a great start in the NFC North Division race, dispatched an interconference opponent and now brace for a pair of games against NFC East contenders.
First things first and it’s Philly and Lambeau in prime time Thursday night.
The Eagles are two years removed from a Super Bowl, made the playoffs last year injuries and bad hands have them off to a 1-2 start for Head Coach Doug Pederson, one of my all-time favorite back up quarterbacks in Green Bay.
After beating Washington at home, the Eagles dropped a 4 point decision to Atlanta on the road when the Falcons scored from midfield on a late 4th and 3 pass from Matt Ryan to Julio Jones. Last week, the Lions nudged past Philly at Lincoln Financial Field 27-24 thanks to a couple of bad drops by Eagle wide receivers.
The injuries are another story. Two top defenders will be out of action against the Packers, lineman Tim Jernigan and defensive back Ronald Darby. Their top deep threat, DeSean Jackson is also on the shelf.
Pederson still has plenty of game changers who will dress however. Quarterback Carson Wentz has had two seasons derailed by injury but is back healthy and Fletcher Cox is one of the most dominant interior defensive linemen in the league.
So can the Packers continue their defensive takeaway prowess and somehow find game long consistency on offense? Here’s how I see it breaking down.
When the Packers have the ball.
The early game scripts and been flawlessly executed the last two weeks. Excellent defensive coaches like Mike Zimmer of Minnesota and Vic Fangio in Denver made adjustments and Matt LaFleur hasn’t been able to come up with effective counter punches. Derailing his effort has been short gaining or negative yardage early down plays or penalties, forcing Green Bay to convert difficult third downs. They have converted just 25% for the year and that number drops to 10% on third and six or more. They’ll have to be much better on the ground early to give Aaron Rodgers’ play action game a chance to take hold. Easier said than done against the league’s second best rush defense after three games.
It’s not like LaFleur can’t come up with a creative play once the hot start cools. Last week’s wheel route and near touchdown to fullback Danny Vitale was a perfect example.
Even LaFleur admits on a short week, it’s going to be a basic game plan, utilizing the greatest hits of the playbook.
Moving the chains afford more snaps and in theory, more production. It’s a must against the Philly D.
When the Eagles have the ball.
Wentz is a hard tackle, not unlike Ben Roethlisberger according to defensive coordinator Mike Pettine. He will bounce off hits in the pocket, move and be able to make extended plays. With Jackson out, Alshon Jeffrey and Nelson Agholor will be the wideouts that I believe can be covered by the Packer tanden of Kevin King and Jaire Alexander. The x-factor is tight end Zach Ertz. The two time pro bowl player is a security blanket for Wentz and could create matchup problems.
The Eagles are not very dynamic on the ground with second round draft choice Miles Sanders and former Bear banger Jordan Howard. That should help the Pack’s struggling run D and allow the edge rushing Smith brothers a chance to make plays. Za’Darius Smith however is battling a knee injury and is questionable for the game. With Kyler Fackrell also questionable with a shoulder injury, Rashan Gary is in line for more snaps but he’s brimming with confidence after making a couple of big plays against Denver.
The Packers can’t hope the Eagle receivers will continue dropping passes, 8 so far, but limiting explosive plays is a must, something Pettine’s unit has had trouble with.
Short weeks are tough on both sides, tougher for the traveling team and the Philly is a bit beat up but still dangerous.
I think the home field advantage will hold up again, take the Packers in another battle, 23-20.
