The Green Bay Packers are nine years removed from their last Super Bowl victory, it’s been six years since the Seattle Seahawks captured their only Vince Lombardi trophy. The one constant for both franchises in the interim has been their quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson will meet again in the NFC Divisional Round playoff game this Sunday at Lambeau Field at 5:40 PM CST.
This will be the second post-season game between the NFL’s top two quarterbacks in career passer rating (Rodgers 103.1, Wilson 100.3 heading into 2019). Wilson got the better of Rodgers in the 2014 NFC Championship game throwing the walk-off 35 yard touchdown pass in overtime in Seattle’s 28-22 victory at Century Link Stadium. He also had the better statistical season in 2019, finishing with a rating of 106.3 compared to Rodgers’ mark of 95.4. Combined they threw for 57 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. It’s the only game featuring Super Bowl winning quarterbacks among the four Divisional Round playoff contests this weekend.
A lot has changed since Green Bay’s epic collapse in the Pacific Northwest that season. The Packers have wrapped up an unexpectedly successful first year under Matt LaFleur, earning the number 2 seed as NFC North champs while having only 7 players still on the roster from that game. Seattle has rebuilt virtually it’s entire roster under veteran Head Coach Pete Carroll since then.
Sunday marks the fourth all-time playoff meeting between the clubs with the home team winning the prior three. Before the Packers suffered the heartbreak in Seattle, they advanced past the Seahawks 33-27 in 2003 in Green Bay on the memorable Al Harris overtime pick six and four years later in a snowstorm, Ryan Grant ran wild in a 42-20 Packers victory.
Seattle (12-5) arrives as the runner-up to San Francisco in the NFC West, drawing the number five seed but winners on the road 17-9 at Philadelphia in the Wild Card game last weekend. Green Bay (13-3) is hosting it’s first playoff game since a Wild Card win against the Giants in 2016.
The winner will punch a ticket to next week’s conference championship game against the winner of Saturday’s tilt between the 49ers and Minnesota Vikings.
Shall we match it up?
When the Packers have the ball.
Rodgers hasn’t been asked to deliver MVP-like performances much this year, deferring to the run game led by Aaron Jones(1084 yards, 16 touchdowns). He may have to up his game from here on out, however. Especially against an aggressive and smart, yet still vulnerable Seahawks defense coordinated by Ken Norton Jr. It’s hardly the “Legion of Boom” unit Rodgers saw five years ago but outstanding linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright remain. Free agent signings and trades have bolstered the front line and back end with Seattle acquiring Jadaveon Clowney from Houston and Quandre Diggs from Detroit while signing edge rusher Ziggy Ansah, another former Lion and corner Brad McDougald from Tampa Bay. Seattle has given up a lot of yards (26th) and points (22nd) but they are adept at taking the ball away finishing tied for 3rd with Green Bay with +12 on the turnover table. Their 32 takeaways was third most in the league.
Look for the Packers to lean on Jones again, to establish a ground game and to attack the flanks in the air. Rodgers should be given ample time to deliver balls downfield as Seattle managed only 28 sacks on the season, (third fewest). They did ramp up pressure in Philly against 40-something quarterback Josh McCown, sacking him seven times. Clowney is the most consistent rusher and must be accounted for.
Green Bay hasn’t gone above 23 points since the victory against the Giants (31-13) on December 1 which started their current five game winning streak. Between the pair of 17-9 victories over Philly, Seattle hasn’t held an opponent under 24, dropping three of their last four games in the regular season.
The Packers should have plenty of opportunities to put points on the board.
When the Seahawks have the ball.
Seattle powered their way to an 8-2 start this year because of a punishing ground game that is now a shell of itself because of injuries to their top three backs. Chris Carson was the biggest blow, going down in late December after piling up 1230 yards on the year. The rushing attack set up Wilson’s downfield, play action passing game. Having to lean on rookie Travis Homer and pulling Marshawn Lynch out of retirement has not brought the same results and the Seahawks are more reliant on Wilson’s playmaking than ever. Problem for Green Bay is, he’s an extremely dangerous playmaker on the move with both his arm and legs.
Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said this week his rush unit will run more in this game than any other and they can’t settle for just keeping Wilson in the pocket. He believes that leads to a tendency of slowing the rush down over concerns of escape. Pettine wants to stay aggressive to chase Wilson down.
With Seattle’s top two tight ends also on injured reserve, Wilson is down to speedy Tyler Lockett and gigantic rookie D.K. Metcalf on the perimeter. Lockett caught 82 passes for 1057 yards and 8 scores on the season while Metcalf has really emerged down the stretch, highlighted by his 7 catch, 160 yard effort against the Eagles last weekend, pulling down a 53 yard touchdown and a game sealing deep ball in the 4th quarter.
The Packers should be able to neutralize Seattle’s ground game, Lynch isn’t the “Beast Mode” of the past anymore. It then comes down to disciplined rush lanes and getting to Wilson, which is far from impossible because he was sacked 48 times this year.
If Kevin King and Jaire Alexander hold up against the Seattle receivers and safeties Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos resist biting up on play action, the Packers should be able to prevent the Seahawks from sustaining long drives. Even if they have a lengthy march or two, the Pack’s red zone defense (6th best), will make it difficult for Seattle to finish those drives.
Another note, Wilson’s career passer rating, while 2nd best all-time, is just 81.9 against the Packers, the lowest against any opponent. Green Bay has had a way of keeping him under wraps.
Don’t forget the special teams.
Seattle started their improbable comeback against the Packers in the last playoff meeting when Jon Ryan pulled off a fake field goal and the holder (and ex-Packer punter), threw a 19 yard touchdown pass to Garry Gilliam that got the Seahawks on the board after trailing 16-0. Lockett is an accomplished returner, Seattle’s kicking game is above average, but beware of the tricks.
Bottom line.
A re-energized franchise has found themselves back in the mix, sooner rather than later. There are enough veterans tutoring a young team about the rarity of these opportunities. Rodgers isn’t getting any younger. Seattle is beat up and travel weary. The Packers are 6-1 at home all time in the divisional round. Make it a lucky 7. I like the Pack to win 23-20 in a game they control throughout.