For a team that annually has playoff aspirations, and one that currently stands atop the NFC playoff picture, the Green Bay Packers may still not have an idea of just how good they are in 2020. A 7-2 record suggests plenty, but the Packers have faced only two teams that are with them in the post-season chase, the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They split with those two opponents and come Sunday, they’ll meet a third who very much have the playoffs in their sights, the 6-3, AFC South Division leading Indianapolis Colts.
As the stretch run to the dance is about to begin, the Packers have an opportunity to solidify their standing as an NFC, if not Super Bowl favorite by dispatching a talented, very well coached Indianapolis club in their house, Lucas Oil Stadium, kicking off at 3:25 PM on Sunday.
Indy is coming off an important division win against Tennessee and they’re in the middle of a Titans sandwich, getting them again after the match with the Packers. But they’ve had 10 days to prepare for Aaron Rodgers and company and will bring the league’s top ranked defense into the contest. Time to match up what will be a telling afternoon.
When the Packers have the ball.
There’s wide receiver worry in Titletown. Just when the Packers thought they’d have the offensive band back together again, Davante Adams rolled his ankle last week against Jacksonville and could be a question mark this weekend. He didn’t practice on Thursday but hopes to give it a go. Allen Lazard has finally emerged off the injured reserve list but there will be a gradual re-introduction into the game plan. David Bakhtiari has returned, new found wealth and all and Aaron Jones has finally put his calf injury behind him. All are required at peak performance against the Colts defense, allowing a league low 290 yards a game. They are solid at every level, disruptive up front with DeForest Buckner, the former 49er, wide body Stewart Grover, edge rusher Justin Houston, premiere linebacker Darius Leonard and old foe, former Viking Xavier Rhodes at corner.
Aaron Rodgers described coordinator Matt Eberflus’ unit a “vision” defense where they drop and spot and then follow first the quarterback’s eyes and then the ball to converge and make plays.
If Adams is hobbled, the passing game will suffer. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been re-building confidence in each of the past two weeks and he’ll be needed not only to produce his usual field stretching routes but in the intermediate passing game.
Jones and Jamaal Williams may also have to carry a larger load in the running game but that may be the best part of the Colts defense, giving up 91 yards a game and just 3.5 yards a carry.
The eyes will have it. Rodgers will need to be creative in getting that vision defense to focus on where they think the ball might be headed, only to deliver it elsewhere and on time. If protection holds and the Colts are forced to blitz to bring pressure, the Packers should be able to exploit two young safeties in the back, second year pro Khari Willis and this year’s third round draft pick Julian Blackmon.
Indy forces teams to drive a long ways with a lot of snaps, increasing the chances for mistakes like penalties or negative plays and that plays into their hands.
When the Colts have the ball.
Here comes another senior moment for Mike Pettine’s unit. 39 year old Phillip Rivers according to Pettine, “knows what we’re in even before we know what we’re in.” In his final season as a Charger, Rivers unloaded the ball quickly and accurately, completing 21 of 28 passes for 290 yards in L.A.’s easy win over the Packers last year. He’s doing more of the same in his first season as a Colt. The ball comes out fast and not very deep, his solid offensive line holds protection just long enough, he’s rarely been sacked. Receivers run a lot of possession routes and running back Nyheim Hines is the leading receiver out of the backfield with 33 catches.
Head Coach Matt LaFleur said his pass rush can’t get frustrated if they don’t get home charging the veteran quarterback. The pass rush can gain precious extra time if they keep the Colts at or behind the sticks. Second and long, better yet, third and long will require deeper routes and more protection. The coverage should hold up with the return of Jaire Alexander from his concussion and Kevin King from his way too long quadricep injury, back for the first time in six weeks.
It’ll be up to the run defense to limit early down success. Indy isn’t a power running team even with former Wisconsin Badger star Jonathan Taylor as lead back. He’s averaging less than 50 yards a game and 4 yards a carry in his rookie campaign.
It will be interesting to see how Christian Kirksey progresses from his first game back from a shoulder injury last week against Jacksonville. More importantly, he will continue to share early down defense with rookie Kamal Martin. That tandem raised a lot of eyebrows during training camp and it led Martin to earn a starting job before injuries and a close contact Covid case prevented those two from playing a game together until last Sunday.
Rivers will take chances is the pocket is squeezed tight and the Packers will have to capitalize on any opportunity to get their hands on the ball.
Don’t forget the Teams.
LaFleur said this will be the biggest challenge yet for his special teams. The Colts run out a host of big and fast linebackers on their cover units, their return game has produced a kickoff return touchdown and last week they blocked a punt for a score against the Titans. Isaiah Rodgers has that 101 yard kickoff return score and averages nearly 30 yards a runback and he’s unafraid to take the ball from deep in the end zone. Couple that with big mistakes from coordinator Shawn Mennenga’s unit the past couple of weeks, getting a punt blocked and allowing an abhorrent punt return score just last Sunday. Strong coverage and a clean, field position winning kicking game is a must.
The bottom line.
The Packers have never won a game in Indianapolis, they are 0-4 all time in both the old Hoosier Dome and Lucas Oil Stadium. However, LaFleur has yet to lose as a Head Coach when his team plays indoors. 3-0 last year in domes and 3 for 3 so far this season. Something has to give. I just have a feeling it’ll be the Packers. They’ll endure another tough lesson about what’s required to beat another playoff minded club on the road.
I like the Colts in a squeaker, 26-23.
