Me and most other Brewer fans when the Phillies finally put us out of our misery last night:
What a relief! I never thought I’d say this about a Brewer team that’s probably going to win 87 games and be in playoff contention until the final three games of the season, but I couldn’t be happier it’s over. This team was a CHORE to watch. The losses to bad teams when they needed wins, the WAY they lost those games (almost all late inning or extra inning losses), the personnel moves that blew up in their face, the bullpen decisions that blew up in their face, everything with this team was like trying to draw blood from a stone. Even the wins weren’t all that much fun.
And that sentiment is clearly felt by a lot of the Brewer fan base. Never in my life would I have thought that Miller Park would look like this when the team still has a shot at the playoffs with three games left in the season:
YIKES. Paid attendance: a little over 18,000. Actual attendance looked to be about 5,000. Zero juice with this team. Zero.
So, what the hell happened? They had the best 50 game start in franchise history (32-18), and they were in first place by 4 games as late as July 30th. After that? It’s been an abject disaster.
Now every Brewer fan is going to have a different take about ‘who’s to blame’ for the direction this season took. Plenty of people are going to blame Craig Counsell for not being able to keep the locker room together and his mismanagement of the bullpen. And some of that is fair. It seemed like almost every call he made in the last two months blew up in his face like he’s Wile E. Coyote. But keep this in mind: The Craig Counsell Era is the most successful era in the history of the franchise in terms of wins and losses. Yes, they haven’t won a title or even made a World Series appearance, but he took over a MESS of a team in 2015. They had one down-ish year in 2016 and have either been in the playoffs or in playoff contention every single season since. Yes, he had a bad year, a LOT of people did, but I’m not ready to pull the trigger on Craig.
Other fans are going to blame Mark Attanasio for being cheap, and plenty of people will blame the players themselves. They are the ones actually on the field after all, right?
But to me, this season’s shortcomings fall on David Stearns’ shoulders. And I readily acknowledge the same thing we just said about Craig Counsell: The Stearns Era has been the most successful in the franchise. For a LONG time, he’s had the Midas Touch, the Jonathan Schoop trade in 2018 notwithstanding. Most of what he’s done when it comes to personnel has worked out in one way or another.
Not this season. Flipping Jackie Bradley Jr. for Hunter Renfroe was a fantastic start to the 2022 campaign, but after that it’s been a mess.
- Pedro Severino was busted for PED usage which forced Stearns to swing a trade for Victor Caratini. Fine. But once Severino came off of the suspension list, we inexplicably kept three catchers on our roster for WAY too long. Especially considering Severino was ineligible for postseason play.
- He rolled the dice on a Lo Cain/Tyrone Taylor platoon in centerfield. Lo Cain didn’t have much left in the tank, eventually getting released, and while Taylor has been okay at times, he seems to be a streaky player who is likely a decent 4th outfielder. The Garrett Mitchell call-up helped a bit, but the Brewers got next to nothing from centerfield this season.
- The Josh Hader trade. Probably the move that defines the season. The Brewers were rolling in Boston, had a 4-game division lead, then Stearns trades Hader to the Padres for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, and two prospects. It’s the only significant move they made. A first place team trades (arguably) their 2nd or 3rd best player, and pick up essentially nothing to help them this season? What? Taylor Rogers was a hot mess down the stretch. Dinelson Lamet was immediately released (why?), then picked up by the Rockies, then posted a sub-3 ERA the remainder of the year. Whoops! Now who knows if Robert Gasser or Esteury Ruiz become anything at the major league level. They were both very good at the AA and AAA level. Maybe in a year or two they become regular contributors on the big league club and we look back at that trade and say it was somewhat successful. But in terms of JUST the 2022 season? Horrible. And that’s not even getting into what it did to the locker room chemistry and the attitude of the team.
- Trading a top 20 prospect (#19, Tristan Peters) for Trevor Rosenthal. Low key might be his worst move as the Brewer GM/Director of Player Personnel. They traded a top 20 prospect for a pitcher who hadn’t pitched in a Major League game since 2020. AND he was hurt! He made a brief rehab appearance, reinjured himself, and never threw a pitch for the Brewers. Brutal.
Overall: Not. Great. Bob. Between the moves not working on the field, and the impact they had in the locker room, it was not a red letter year for Stearns. Again, he’s been REALLY good during his time in Milwaukee. At the end of 2015, we all thought we were in store for a 4-5 year rebuild. He got them back on track in 1 season. I still think he’s the guy you want in charge based on his track record, but if I’m assigning blame to one person or element, it has to be to him. Like with Counsell, it’s okay to say that a person that’s been generally good at their job had a bad year.
One more thing worth mentioning in regards to this season’s demise: Injuries. Specially to the starting rotation. Last season you could hand the ball to Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Lauer/Houser without fail every 5 days. That was a huge part of being able to win 95 games in 2021. This season only Corbin Burnes made every turn. Woodruff missed a month, Peralta missed half of the season, Houser missed half of the season (and never looked like himself after a good April) and Lauer missed about a month. When your rotation is your foundation, that’s hard to overcome. Jason Alexander, Chi Chi Gonzalez, and guys like that had to make WAY too many starts for this team.
What will this team look like next season? Tough to guess. Barring a shocking trade, all of the starting rotation will be back. Burnes/Woodruff/Lauer are all under contract through 2024. Freddy is under contract through 2026, Ashby through 2029 (and he will be better). And Devin Williams will be your closer. *IF HEALTHY* that pitching should keep you in contention for a playoff spot.
The question is the offense. They hit a ton of home runs this season, they took a ton of walks, but anyone that watched this team night-in-night out could see it was anemic in big moments. No consistent contact. No consistent anything. They got basically zero production from 3rd base, centerfield, and catcher. Tough to live like that. Yeli will be back because you’re anchored to him*, Renfroe will be back, and Adames will be back. Beyond that? Is Urias your 3rd baseman? Are you paying Kolten Wong $10 million to stay or $2 million to leave? Rowdy Tellez launched a bunch of home runs but also hit .219, is he your everyday 1st baseman? Is Garrett Mitchell an everyday player? Or will a guy like Ruiz or Sal Frelick at AAA get a closer look? I dunno. But Stearns and Company are going to have a lot of time to try to figure it out.
*Yeli was better this season. The power seems like it’s pretty much gone at this point, but he maybe found a spot as the leadoff hitter, and his 2.8 WAR was much better than the 1.3 he posted in 2021. And I do anticipate that the shift being outlawed is going to help every left handed hitter’s average (Rowdy’s too). Even with that, is he worth $26 million a year? Not even close. Not with those numbers, and certainly not with his poor arm in left field. Maybe $8-$10 million, but not $26 million. Unfortunately for a small market team, that is going to have an impact on an eventual offer to Burnes or Woodruff or both.
PS: Do we think Stearns is just gone after next year? He had that weird caveat in his contract that if they won a pennant in 2021, he could leave after this season. Based on the moves he made I’d say maybe he wants to stay. But I’m almost certain his contract is up after 2023, and he’s been rumored to be going to the Mets for a few years now.
