Just spoke to Hunter Renfroe, who indicated he had a sneaking suspicion he'd be moving on from Milwaukee.
"Unfortunately, we were kind of expecting it. The nature of the beast is you get too expensive type deal for a team like Milwaukee."
— Todd Rosiak (@Todd_Rosiak) November 23, 2022
YEESH. Welp, that’s a pretty damning quote. I guess he’s not saying anything we didn’t really know, especially given what happened with Hader at the deadline, but man, to hear it directly from a player hits differently.
So Matt Arnold’s first major move came down last night, Hunter Renfroe to the Angels for three pitching prospects: Jason Junk (actual last name), Elvis Peguero, and Adam Seminaris. Let’s break this down in terms of ‘micro,’ ‘macro,’ and ‘spin zone.’
Micro: When he was healthy Hunter Renfroe was arguably your best hitter last season. Is that saying much? Not really. But he had an OPS of .807, 29 home runs (in 474 at bats, full season he likely hits 35 bombs), and 72 RBI. He hit .255 which won’t blow you away, but he slugged just short of .500 and had a career high WAR of 2.7. Let’s not act like we traded away a perennial All Star, because we didn’t. But on a team that lacked consistency on offense, he was fairly consistent.
Jason Junk was the 16th rated prospect for the Angels (not a super well-regarded system), he’s 26 years old and probably factors into the Major League roster in 2023. Likely as a bullpen arm or a swing-starter. Peguero and Seminaris were not rated in the top 30 prospects for the Angels, but Peguero did pitch at the Major League level last year, and Seminaris seems to be knocking on the door (3.54 ERA combined A, AA, and AAA last season). Peguero is 25 years old and Seminaris is 24 years old. In Matt Arnold’s perfect world I’m guessing all three of these guys will at least pitch out of the bullpen at some point in 2023.
On the surface I’d be lying if I said I liked the deal. As mentioned above, this team desperately needs more consistent offense, and trading your most consistent offensive piece seems….counterintuitive? As with any trade involving prospects, we will have to wait and see whether or not Junk/Peguero/Seminaris impact the team in a positive way this season or in the near future. If they do, we might end up saying it was a decent deal, if they don’t it wasn’t.
Macro: And we’re talking MACRO, macro. The Brewers have a glut of highly rated outfield prospects. Sal Frelick, Estuery Ruiz (who came over in the Hader deal), Joey Wiemer and Garrett Mitchell are all top 15 in the Brewer system. At some point, you have to figure out if they can play at the Major League level and none of them have anything more to prove at AAA. For better or worse, Yelich is entrenched in left field, Mitchell got a cup of coffee (28 games, 61 at-bats, hit .311) in centerfield last season and figures to be given every opportunity to take that job heading into 2023, which left Renfroe as the odd man out to open up more space. Renfroe only has 1 more year of arbitration so he’s probably gone after next season anyway, and if the Brewers are genuinely confident that Frelick/Ruiz/Wiemer can give them something comparable to the numbers Renfroe put up, may as well go with the much cheaper option.
Another thing I like about the deal in the macro is Jason Junk gives you some starting pitching depth. If the rotation stays as-is (and it may not at this point), you’re set with Burnes/Woody/Peralta/Lauer/Houser/Ashby. But as we learned last year, beyond that, it doesn’t look pretty. I loved making a ton of Seinfeld references last season, but Jason Alexander made WAY too many starts when guys went down. As did Chi Chi Gonzalez. So adding some live arms with starting experience isn’t a bad idea.
Spin Zone: It’s November. Even if we all agree that we don’t love this specific deal as it relates to the team’s prospects for the 2023 season, there is a LONG way to go in the off-season. We haven’t even reached the Winter Meetings yet. Maybe the Brewers take some of the money they’re saving on Renfroe and use it to extend Burnes or Woodruff*. Maybe they make a move for an impact bat at 3rd base or catcher. Maybe one of the Frelick/Ruiz/Wiemer trio comes up and hits like Braunie did when he got called up in 2007 and Matt Arnold will come out of this thing looking like a genius. The point is, making sweeping statements on November 23rd feels a bit hasty.
Now I do agree that in this particular moment, I’m not exactly sure what the front office thinks we are. We have generational starting pitching, but Burnes and Woodruff are only under control for two more seasons, and both have said they haven’t even been offered a long term extension yet. They traded Hader because they didn’t want to pay him, they traded Renfroe because they didn’t want to pay him, they picked up Wong’s $10 million dollar option but the rumors are that he will be the next to get dealt. So are we rebuilding? Do we think our offensive prospects can have an immediate impact to help balance out a fantastic rotation and compete for a playoff spot/title in 2023 and 2024? Or are we preparing to deal Burnes and Woodruff too and go full rebuild? Again, there’s a lot of time between now and February, hopefully we have more clarity on an organizational direction by that point.
*Grow up, Peter Pan.
PS: You know what’s truly infuriating about the last 15 years for this franchise? The poor timing. CC and Sheets both left after 2008, and the team had GENERATIONAL hitting with Braun/Prince/Hart etc. all in their prime. But they couldn’t develop a single arm outside of Gallardo. Now they have GENERATIONAL starting pitching and they (so far) haven’t been able to develop offensively. Hopefully guys like Frelick/Ruiz/Wiemer/Mitchell and eventually Jackson Chourio change that, but it may be too late too sync up with the pitching they currently have.
Double PS: Can X-Golf generate enough income to get our payroll to $150 million?
