CUE THE DAMN MUSIC:
INJECT IT DIRECTLY INTO MY VEINS! MAINLINE IT! FOOTBALL! GAMBLING! FANTASY! IT’S ALL BACK! WE MAY STAY IN CAPS LOCK FOR THE WHOLE BLOG! LET’S GOOOOOO!
Whew. We made it everyone. It’s been hotter than the surface of the sun in Wisconsin for about two weeks. Flop sweat everywhere. The aluminum-free deodorant movement has every building smelling like a middle school locker room. Everyone has been hermetically sealed in their houses with their AC slowly draining their Roth IRA’s.
But not today. Today I walked outside and was smacked in the face with a north wind and 55 degrees. Football was in the air. Hoodie and shorts szn, slow cookers, chili, pumpkin spice and apple cinnamon. The days are getting shorter and seasonal depression is in the air baby!
We’ll break down Packers/Bears more on tomorrow’s podcast, but for those that don’t check that out every Monday and Friday, here are a few Packer futures I’m laying down before the season gets underway:
- Packers over 7.5 total wins. Last year it was 10.5. The only difference? No Aaron Rodgers. Everything else is basically the same. Here’s the thing though: This team didn’t really have Aaron Rodgers last season either. It was the worst statistical season of his career, he was average across the board. It’s possible that was all due to his thumb injury, I guess we’ll find out based on how his season goes in New York. But last year, with an average quarterback, the Packers won 8 games. I think Jordan Love can be what Aaron Rodgers was last season. I think he can be better than that. If the defense can improve even a LITTLE bit, I see this team winning 9 games, maybe 10. For those reasons, I’m on the over.
- Packers to win the NFC North at +340. I’m not saying they’re GOING to win the division, I’m saying I like their chances in a wide open division, and I especially like an almost 3.5 to 1 payday. The Lions are the favorites. I repeat: THE LIONS ARE THE FAVORITES. That’s like hearing that Michael Bay directed a thought-provoking Indie film and it’s the favorite to win Best Picture. It’s jarring. I think their offense is going to be good, but they did almost NOTHING to improve a defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last season. Everybody is on the hype train because of the way they finished last season and because everyone loves Dan Campbell. Myself included. But I don’t view them as much different than last season: An 8-ish win team. The Vikings aren’t going to go 13-4 while finishing 11-0 in one-score games, and I don’t think anyone truly knows what the Bears are. Justin Fields is in Year 3. He’s a proven running back. So far, that’s it. They got DJ Moore so that should help him, but that defense is still softer than mashed potatoes. Again, I’m not saying the Packers are a mortal lock, I probably wouldn’t bet on them if they were +110 or something like that, but at +340? Sign me up.
- Jordan Love over 3,350 passing yards. If he plays all 17 games, that would be 197 yards per game. Doesn’t seem like a big nut to crack, but he’s essentially a total unknown. And what this offense looks like with him as the signal caller is also a total unknown. I think he’s going to get a LOT of YAC yards on short passes to Christian Watson and Aaron Jones. Health is the biggest factor here, but if he can play 16 or 17 games, I think he gets to 3,500 yards. And it’s plus money at +105.
As far as tonight’s game between the Chiefs and Lions? Give me points! Originally I was going to play the Chiefs -6.5, but with Chris Jones holding out and Travis Kelce suffering a knee injury this week, that feels a little tenuous. But we know Patrick Mahomes can put points up and we know that Lions offense is going to be good: Give me the over on 54.5 points.
PS: If the Brewers could stop losing games to bad teams in a division race in September, that’d be great. Mmmmmmkay?
