In the NFL, it’s often not who you play, but when you play.
That certainly applies to the Green Bay Packers who visit Arrowhead Stadium Sunday night to meet the Kansas City Chiefs in an important inter-conference game. The Packers stand 6-1 with a pair of three game winning streaks sandwiched around a loss at home, putting them firmly in the mix in the NFC race. The Chiefs are 5-2, leading the AFC West after reaching the conference championship game last season.
NBC was anxiously awaiting this broadcast until last Thursday, when reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes dislocated his kneecap on a quarterback sneak. Even though he’s expected to miss a couple of weeks, Mahomes was out practicing on Wednesday and Thursday leaving Head Coach Andy Reid reluctant to completely rule him out. Backup Matt Moore finished Kansas City’s victory in Denver and got most of the reps this week. Unless Mahomes has a ridiculous threshhold for pain, I would expect Moore to get the call which affords the Packers a very large break.
Still it won’t be easy at one of the most boisterous venues in the league. Here’s how I view the matchup.
When the Chiefs have the ball.
The talent drop at quarterback is sizeable. Mahomes has thrown 65 touchdown passes in his last 23 games. Moore is an 11 year journeyman for a reason. While the passer may change, the playmakers will not. Kansas City is blessed with a variety of talents that will keep the Packers busy. First among them is tight end Travis Kelce. With Rob Gronkowski enjoying retirement, Kelce might be the best in the business. He leads the team with 38 receptions and averages over 14 yards a grab, impressive for a tight end. Sammy Watkins is the big body target, Demarcus Robinson, second round pick Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill in particular, are the speed merchants. All of the receivers run routes off jet sweep action which can get secdondaries chasing out of position. Veteran Lesean McCoy is the leading rusher with 322 yards and a very good 5.4 yard average. Damien Williams hasn’t been nearly as productive. Reid is an excellent play caller who likes possession routes to set up deep shots.
It’ll help having rookie Darnell Savage return from his ankle sprain to play centerfield. Large gaps in zone coverages in recent weeks have been exploited. Jaire Alexander has the speed to run with the Kansas City burners and Kevin King has the length to matchup with Watkins.
Controlling Kansas City’s below average run game will put the ball in the hands of Moore and Green Bay’s pass rush should be far more effective reaching Moore than a healthy Mahomes, an excellent scrambler and play extender.
When the Packers have the ball.
Matt LaFleur’s offense has really picked up steam the past month, cracking 400+ yards in three of the last four games. They’re coming off a season high 42 points last week, all without Davante Adams who will probably miss a fourth straight game. While Aaron Rodgers is coming off an NFC Offensive Player of the Week performance against the Raiders, my guess is the game plan will look more like Dallas than Oakland. The Chiefs rank 29th against the run, giving up 148.9 yards a game and 5 yards a carry. LaFleur may have caught the Cowboys by surprise as Aaron Jones piled up 107 yards and four rushing touchdowns. The Chiefs will be ready for a ground assault but I’m not sure they can shut it down. The spread it around passing game should also find matchups against a defense that has given up 26 or more points in four of their 7 games. Kansas City does have an eye opening 20 sacks but 9 came last week alone against a dreadful Denver offensive line and statuesque Joe Flacco. Green Bay’s protection with a far craftier Aaron Rodgers has been on point.
Finally, it’s only noise. Arrowhead prides itself on being the loudest outdoor stadium in the league and the Packers practiced all week with the volume cranked up on sideline speakers. Rodgers is an expert at non-verbal signals at the line and if the rest of the offense has been diligent about their homework, they should endure. Getting and playing with the lead will obviously keep the roar down.
Kansas City rebounded with that costly victory in Denver after losing two straight at home. They also lost the AFC title game to the Patriots on their home field. The advantage is not as substantial as you would think. The Packers are brimming with confidence, back-ups at receiver and in the secondary have made plays to aid the winning efforts. Against a gimpy Mahomes or a healthy Moore, I have a feeling it’ll be enough.
I like the Packers to keep the arrow pointed up at Arrowhead. Green Bay 27, Kansas City 23.
