By Divya Chowdhury and Bansari Mayur Kamdar
DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) – Guggenheim Partners’ chief investment officer forecast on Monday that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates roughly every quarter in 2025, bringing the reduction to around 75 basis points or even a full percentage point this year.
The Fed will continue cutting, albeit on a slower path than had been expected, Guggenheim CIO Anne Walsh told the Reuters Global Markets Forum at the start of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos.
Trader bets have moved in the last few days to just one Fed rate cut this year with the chances of a second cut hanging in the balance, down from at least three a month ago.
Tariffs expected to be imposed by incoming President Donald Trump will probably not be as punishing as most expect, Walsh said, as long as the dollar remains strong as the reserve currency and the U.S. continues to attract capital.
Walsh expects tariffs, on average, to rise by less than 10% across the board, and be more country-specific.
After a sharp bull run until 2022, the bond market is now trading in a range for its third year, Walsh said, with the volatility within this making it interesting.
“If we get to 5% on the 10-year, that’s extreme, and that’s such an oversold position, it’s a total buying opportunity,” said Walsh, adding that bond yield spreads could continue to stay tight, which will also be good for U.S. equities.
She expected stocks to gain further from positive global themes playing out such as artificial intelligence (AI), energy and a re-shoring of manufacturing to the U.S., with the S&P 500 delivering returns of 8%-10% by the end-2025.
Walsh said there was some uncertainty attached to Trump’s policies and what is actually implemented by his incoming administration, and also a risk that the U.S. economy slows down more than is being currently predicted.
“It’s like a game of ping pong … between politics and policy, and that’s going to create a lot of volatility around our (investing) themes this year,” Walsh said.
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(Reporting by Divya Chowdhury in Davos and Bansari Mayur Kamdar; Editing by Alexander Smith)
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