So last Friday, the Bucks lost to the Nuggets (who were AGAIN without 4 starters), but more importantly, Giannis went down with another calf injury. That was confirmed with an MRI on Saturday, and Doc reaffirmed it yesterday at practice while giving no timeline on his potential return. Giannis told reporters after the game on Friday that he felt like he’d be out 4-6 weeks.
Initially I was bummed about this news, but the more I thought about it, the more this might be a saving grace for the franchise going forward. Cue my graphic:
Giannis being out for 4-6 weeks means that Jon Horst no longer has to pretend that this team is anywhere close to contending. They aren’t. They’re bad with Giannis (which seems unfathomable), and they’re REALLY bad without him. So sitting at 8 games under .500 already, there’s no realistic world where they’re anywhere near a playoff spot when he returns in early-to-mid-March. In fact that might be 15+ games under .500 by that point.
So here’s what the Bucks need to do for the remainder of the season: Embrace the suck. Steer into the tank. Wrap your arms around it, hold it, cherish it, accept it.
Because the trade deadline is next week Thursday. And if Giannis were healthy, the temptation might have been to spend what little collateral you have, and acquire a lottery ticket like Ja Morant or Miles Bridges or Zach LaVine. While a move like that would have grabbed headlines, the end game would have still been the same: First round exit at BEST.
So now you don’t have to pretend there’s any move you can make that makes this team a contender. Don’t acquire anything at the deadline. Hell, if you can, trade AWAY some of the pieces on this team that other teams might want to add. Bobby Portis, KPJ (when healthy), even Myles Turner should be on the block. The only players I would keep of the current crop would be AJ Green and Ryan Rollins. Acquire draft picks, get out from under contracts, wipe as much of the blackboard clean as you can heading into the offseason.
Because this summer is where you can really retool. Contrary to popular belief, the Bucks DO have a first round pick this year. It’s a pick swap with New Orleans, so if the Bucks end up with a higher pick than the Pelicans, the Pelicans can trade places with the Bucks. But the good news there is, the Pelicans also stink! One of the worst teams in the league. It looks certain at this point that the Bucks will have a top 10 pick in June, and it might even top 5. And this is a DEEP and talented draft. You might actually find a young, building block type of piece.
This summer Kyle Kuzma’s contract becomes an expiring contract as well (much more tradeable), and you get the MLE and BAE slots back, which means you can sign a few players of actual significance.
So if you just accept what this is at this point, and steer into it, there’s an actual path to being in a much better spot next year than you are this year.
Now the question becomes, if this team goes 30-52, and Giannis ultimately just sits for the rest of the season, can you sell him on that vision. I’m standing by the article on the Athletic a few weeks ago where he said he wants to retire in Milwaukee. The Bucks are the only team that can offer him another super-max contract this offseason*, if you can show him your dream board of how things can be different and better next year, I would guess there’s a chance he buys in.
There’s also a chance he demands a trade, which I don’t think I’d begrudge him at this point. But regardless of whether Giannis is all in or not, losing/tanking this season is the best path forward for the franchise.
*This is becoming a bigger element in regards to Giannis’ future than I think the national media gives credence to. It’s no secret that Giannis is a money guy. He’s a loyalty guy, but he’s also a money guy. He’s 31 years old, and he’s dangerously close to getting the “injury prone” designation. If he signs the super max in October, that’s probably his last chance for a MASSIVE contract. That contract would take him to age 36, and while he would certainly get one more big deal if he’s still performing, it’s not going to be to the tune of 4 years, $275 million dollars.
PS: Also on the dream board: Fire Doc at the end of the season. Or polite fire him and move him up to the front office. It’s time, it’s over. At this point just let him coach for the remainder of the year since it doesn’t matter anyway, then move on.
Double PS: Doc Rivers is Eddie Sherman:
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