By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, April 23 (Reuters) – Oil prices jumped and Wall Street fell on Thursday, with the Nasdaq having its worst day in a month, as fading hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal soured recent optimism around the U.S. earnings season and tech companies in particular.
In my column today, I look at the resilience of U.S. equity – and other global stock markets – and ask whether the biggest investment risk right now might not be war, inflation or tariffs, but risk aversion and not being invested.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
1. Iran shows off its control over strait after collapse of peace talks
2. Iran war impact seeps ever deeper into global economy
3. A Warsh-led Fed’s 2% inflation goal might be a different 2%: Mike Dolan
4. Investors return to US stocks as AI, earnings growth feed fear of missing out
5. Biggest IPO wave in history promises $3 trillion in value – with no profits
Today’s Key Market Moves
• STOCKS: Asia down – KOSPI big exception, hits new high. Europe mixed. Wall Street in the red, Nasdaq -0.9% for biggest fall in a month.
• SECTORS/SHARES: Six of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 fall, five rise. Tech -1.5%, utilities +2.8%. Texas Instruments +19%, ServiceNow -18%, IBM -8%, Tesla -3.6%. Intel +16% after the bell. AMD +5% after the bell too.
• FX: Dollar up for 3rd day. Indian rupee set for worst week since 2022. Peru’s sol down again. Brazil real -1%, biggest fall in a month and back below 5.00/$.
• BONDS: U.S. Treasuries fall, yields +4 bps at short end, flattening curve for 4th day. 5-year TIPS auction goes smoothly.
• COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +4%, up for 4th day in a row, gold slips to 1-week low.
Today’s Talking Points
* Private market blues
The opaque world of private markets is in the spotlight again after the Reuters exclusive on Wednesday that private equity firm Thoma Bravo is nearing a deal to hand software firm Medallia over to its lenders. This will result in a $5.1 billion equity writedown for Thoma Bravo and its co-investors.
Medallia’s main lenders? Private credit giants Blackstone, KKR and Apollo, whose shares all underperformed on Thursday. Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman came out swinging in defense of private credit, but shares fell 5.7%, their worst day in two months.
* IPO, IPO, it’s off to work we go
Excitement is building ahead of SpaceX’s stock market listing, expected in June, with OpenAI and Anthropic set to follow not long after. Together, this will be the largest wave of initial public offerings in history – pretty remarkable for three reportedly loss-making companies.
Of course, investors will be buying in for future earnings, and that’s what the combined IPOs worth $3 trillion, according to LPL Financial estimates, will reflect. Investor appetite for high‑growth technologies is palpable, but $3 trillion is, well, a lot.
* Safe haven, where art thou?
With the Iran war about to enter its third month and the global energy shock still very much alive, the strength of U.S. and many other equity markets is remarkable. Yet surely there is some demand for safety, hedging or diversification amid such uncertainty, right?
It doesn’t look like it. Traditional havens like Treasuries, gold and the yen are all down since the war started, and the dollar is barely up at all. Bitcoin is up 18%, but it did fall 50% in the five months preceding the war. Is Big Tech taking on a ‘safe haven’ mantle now too?
What could move markets tomorrow?
• Developments in the Middle East
• Energy market moves
• Japan earnings including Nomura
• Japan inflation (March)
• UK retail sales (March)
• Germany Ifo business sentiment index (April)
• Canada retail sales (March)
• U.S. University of Michigan consumer, inflation expectations (April, final)
• U.S. earnings include Proctor & Gamble
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)
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