With Sheboygan County solidly embedded in a 3 out of 5 risk of experiencing severe weather today, National Weather Service forecasters are on high alert in case public warnings are needed. During a morning webinar, NWS meteorologist Andrew Quigley said that they’re expecting “quite a stretch” of severe weather beginning this afternoon and continuing through Thursday.
NWS Graphic
NWS Graphic
The latest analysis begins with organized storm clusters located in eastern Iowa late this morning which are expected to move northeast into Wisconsin, eventually affecting Sheboygan County between 3 and 7 PM today. Should they be severe, the greatest threat would be that of winds from 60-80 MPH, while a lesser – but still significant – risk of large hail also exists. And as the storms bow out into eastern Wisconsin, brief tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Quigley gave this scenario an 80% chance of materializing. The lesser possibility is that the main area of storms slides southward toward Illinois taking the severe threat with it, but as of now that isn’t likely.
NWS Graphic
Activity between 7PM and 1AM tonight will depend upon this afternoon’s experience. More storms during the day means fewer and less severe tonight, while fewer storms this afternoon means more coverage and severity tonight with 60-80 MPH winds and isolated, brief tornadoes also possible. Any storms that do develop tonight have the potential to dump copious amounts of rain.
NWS Graphic
On Thursday another round of thunderstorms is expected with a slightly lower risk of severe activity due to the more discreet storms that don’t cluster. The downside of that is a more favorable environment for tornadoes.
Quigley closed this morning’s meeting by advising everyone to be alert and stay weather-aware.
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